Published: November 4, 2026
These are projections, not a census count. The United Nations medium variant puts Africa's ten largest populations in 2050 far above their 2026 levels, and it reshuffles the order below Nigeria. Read the table as a forecast with wide uncertainty, not as a fixed future.
Key Facts
- Nigeria stays number one in 2050 at 359.2 million people, under the UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium variant.
- DR Congo overtakes Egypt for third place, rising from 116.5 million in 2026 to 218.2 million in 2050.
- Nigeria alone is bigger than Egypt and Tanzania combined, 359.2 million against 291.3 million.
- South Africa slides from sixth in 2026 to ninth in 2050, because it grows only 20.9 percent while most rivals grow far faster.
- The top ten total 1,501.4 million people in 2050. The top three alone hold 53.4 percent of that total.
The Ranking
| Rank | Country | Projected population in 2050 | Population in 2026 | Growth, 2026 to 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nigeria | 359,185,556 | 242.4 million | +48.2% |
| 2 | Ethiopia | 225,021,875 | 138.9 million | +62.0% |
| 3 | DR Congo | 218,246,072 | 116.5 million | +87.3% |
| 4 | Egypt | 161,630,192 | 120.1 million | +34.6% |
| 5 | Tanzania | 129,621,102 | 72.6 million | +78.5% |
| 6 | Uganda | 85,431,202 | 52.8 million | +61.7% |
| 7 | Sudan | 85,206,383 | 53.3 million | +59.8% |
| 8 | Kenya | 83,593,239 | 58.6 million | +42.7% |
| 9 | South Africa | 79,177,328 | 65.5 million | +20.9% |
| 10 | Angola | 74,295,394 | 40.2 million | +84.8% |
The headline is the reshuffle, not just the size. Nigeria keeps a huge lead. Below it, DR Congo passes Egypt, and Uganda and Sudan pass both Kenya and South Africa. Angola holds tenth by a clear margin: Mozambique, just outside the table, reaches 63.5 million in 2050.
1. Nigeria: 359.2 million
Nigeria adds about 116.8 million people between 2026 and 2050. That alone is larger than most African countries today. It is 1.6 times Ethiopia in second place, and almost five times Angola in tenth. Nigeria does not pass the United States by 2050 in this UN vintage: the United States is projected at 380.8 million, still 21.7 million ahead.
2. Ethiopia: 225.0 million
Ethiopia grows 62.0 percent to 225.0 million. It stays second, but its lead over DR Congo narrows to just 6.8 million. On current trends, that gap could close soon after 2050.
3. DR Congo: 218.2 million
DR Congo is the fastest grower in the top ten, up 87.3 percent. It adds about 101.7 million people. That growth lifts it from fourth in 2026 to third in 2050, past Egypt. By 2100, the same UN projection puts DR Congo far higher still, but that is a much less certain horizon.
4. Egypt: 161.6 million
Egypt grows more slowly than the top three, up 34.6 percent to 161.6 million. It falls one place, from third to fourth, because DR Congo grows so much faster. Egypt still sits well clear of Tanzania in fifth.
5. Tanzania: 129.6 million
Tanzania rises 78.5 percent to 129.6 million. It adds about 57.0 million people. It stays fifth, and it pulls away from the chasing pack below it.
6. Uganda: 85.4 million
Uganda rises from 52.8 million to 85.4 million. It edges Sudan for sixth place by only 224,819 people. Treat sixth and seventh as effectively tied: a small change in fertility or migration assumptions could swap them.
7. Sudan: 85.2 million
Sudan grows 59.8 percent to 85.2 million. The projection covers Sudan as defined in the UN dataset, separate from South Sudan. War and displacement make any Sudan forecast unusually uncertain, so read this rank with extra care.
8. Kenya: 83.6 million
Kenya grows 42.7 percent to 83.6 million. That is solid growth, yet it is not enough to hold its 2026 position against Uganda and Sudan. Kenya does, however, move past South Africa, which grows far more slowly.
9. South Africa: 79.2 million
South Africa is the slow grower of the top ten, up only 20.9 percent. It adds about 13.7 million people. That slow growth drops it from sixth in 2026 to ninth in 2050, even though its population still rises in absolute terms.
10. Angola: 74.3 million
Angola grows 84.8 percent to 74.3 million, the second fastest rate in the top ten. It adds about 34.1 million people. It holds tenth by 10.8 million over Mozambique, so its place in the table is not a close call.
What This Means
Africa's population story to 2050 is a Central and East African story as much as a Nigerian one. The fastest growth sits in DR Congo, Angola and Tanzania. The slowest sits in South Africa and Egypt. That split will shape demand for schools, jobs, housing and health services. It will also shape political weight, if population keeps translating into regional influence. None of that is automatic. A projection is a model built on fertility, mortality and migration assumptions. If fertility falls faster than expected, the 2050 totals will be lower. If it falls more slowly, they will be higher.
For context, see our full current ranking in Population of Every African Country in 2026, and how cities are changing in Top 10 Most Urbanized Countries in Africa in 2026. The diaspora picture is different again: see Top 10 Largest African Diasporas in the World in 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will Nigeria be the third largest country in the world by 2050?
Not in the UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium variant. Nigeria is fifth globally in 2050, behind India, China, the United States and Pakistan. The United States, at 380.8 million, stays ahead of Nigeria, at 359.2 million.
Why does DR Congo overtake Egypt?
DR Congo grows 87.3 percent between 2026 and 2050, while Egypt grows 34.6 percent. DR Congo starts lower, at 116.5 million against Egypt's 120.1 million, but its faster growth carries it past Egypt to 218.2 million against 161.6 million.
Why does South Africa fall to ninth?
South Africa still grows, but only by 20.9 percent. Uganda, Sudan and Kenya all grow faster, so they pass it. A falling rank here means slower growth, not a shrinking population.
Are these numbers certain?
No. They are medium variant projections, the UN's central scenario. They assume fertility falls gradually and mortality keeps improving. The UN also publishes low and high variants, which give very different totals by 2100. Treat 2050 as a planning range, not a promise.
Which countries just miss the top ten?
Mozambique is eleventh at 63.5 million in 2050, followed by Algeria at 59.6 million. Angola, in tenth at 74.3 million, leads Mozambique by 10.8 million, so the cut is clear.
Data Sources
- United Nations, World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant, via World Population Review, Population by Country in 2050: worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/population-by-country-in-2050
- Population Pyramids, Population Projections by Country: 2050 and 2100 (UN WPP 2024 medium variant, updated October 25, 2026): populationpyramids.org/population-projection-by-country
- United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects 2024: population.un.org/wpp
Methodology
Ranking metric: total population, both sexes, all ages, in 2050, UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium variant. The 2050 figures are the exact values published by World Population Review from that UN dataset. The 2026 figures are rounded to one decimal place in millions, from the same UN vintage via Population Pyramids, and are shown only for growth context. Growth percentages are the published Population Pyramids percentages computed from unrounded UN data; recomputing them from the rounded 2026 figures in the table can differ by 0.1 percentage point for Uganda and Sudan. Sudan is counted separately from South Sudan, as in the UN dataset. All figures are projections, not observed counts, and the article states that in the standfirst, the Key Facts and here. Totals, shares, multiples and gaps in this article were recomputed from the exact 2050 table values before publication.
