Libya, in few months, went from the dictatorship of a megalomaniac pan-Arab leader into the dictatorship of militias, Islamic in their majority and maybe with megalomaniac chiefs, yet again. What happened in fact is that Libya the state, feared for unpredictability and mega million dollars readied for all kind of causes worldwide suddenly went tribal, which means that in the end this country will break up into several provinces. Maybe it will be the first country to go from a country proper into tribal countries.
In Libya, there is a government that has, on paper, a police and an army, but this government exists only in Tripoli, outside of the capital, the country is ruled by the militias. Actually, the Libyan example is very close to the Somali experience. If the government fails in the months to come to assert its power on all the Libyan territory, the country will become de facto Somalia II, in the area. In principle, Libya is already another Somalia, the militias, in certain parts of the country, are already selling oil to foreign companies and pocketing the money to use for their own needs. Soon, these militias, if they have not already done that, will have their own government that will contest the decisions of the paper government of Tripoli.
Post-Qaddafi Libya is bent on becoming three countries or more, if nothing is done on the part of the Tripoli paper government. Indicators show that it is slowly fragmenting in three countries: Cyrenaica, Tripolitania and Fezzan. The only bold initiative that could ultimately reverse this motion is the creation of a federal government that would delegate home affairs to local governments.
Will the Libyan political class opt for that or go the way of the irreversible fragmentation?
Libya died with Gaddafi. The people of Libya have never been worse off.