American football, the major league of the NHL world is becoming increasingly popular outside the United States. NFL games are broadcast in a huge number of countries. The number of bets on this sport is growing and becoming noticeable in the general mass. In this regard, we are going to tell you about the main features of betting on American football.
- How is the betting line set?
The basis for creating a line for an online betting site is the opinions of the players who put the most money on the event. The line-maker predicts how these players will react to the information that they know, and thus creates a line. The professionalism of the clientele that makes bets determines how the line-maker interprets information. In the NFL, the reputation of teams plays a very big role, as most of the money is put by people who do not do detailed statistical analysis of the game. Unlike college basketball, where the reputation of teams is less important for creating a line.
- What are the main factors that form a line?
The main factors that line-makers consider are the talent of the team, situational analysis, and how these two factors are perceived by the playing public. The talent of a team is its capabilities, measured based on the analysis of previous results. Situational analysis is the study of circumstances that can affect the performance of teams. For example, a widely used strategy in professional sports is to bet against a baseball team the day after they become division leaders. There are hundreds of situations that attract the attention of players regardless of their profitability. In college basketball, the talent of the team and its perception by the players are more important than other factors. Professional sports rely more on situational analysis.
The role of feedback in creating a line is difficult to overestimate. When players "vote" with their money, they bet “For” that team or “Against” another team. After a few games, it becomes clear which teams players prefer and which they consider unpromising. The analysis is more difficult for professional sports than for university sports, because of the greater role played by situational analysis. Baseball is particularly difficult, so players can bet for or against a pitcher, as well as for or against a team. However, over time, the public's preferences can usually be tracked. After constant feedback from players is established and used in the process of creating lines, early lines usually do not go far from the correct lines.
Line makers are often too slow to respond to fresh trends. As a result, line-makers are unfairly accused of being lazy and seeing the situation poorly. This situation simply confirms the great role of feedback in the process of creating lines. Players can not win constantly on recent events, line-makers take into account their negative experiences and respond accordingly.
If players reacted more quickly to the changing situation, then the first, early lines to the game more significantly reflected recent trends. Although customers may not agree with this, the office has limited financial resources. Therefore, it should limit its obligations to any event, whether it is a roll of the dice, the hand of cards, or the result of a football game.
- Limitation of obligations
The limitation of obligations also insures the bookmaker from cases related to contractual games and from miscalculations of line-makers. The limitation of obligations is implemented in two ways: by the limit on the amount accepted for this line, and by the movement of the line itself. Ideally, the first, earliest line should divide in half the amount of money put down (from the moment the line appears to the start of the game). However, in the real world, there are no perfect lines. The amount of money placed on the initial line will usually not be balanced. Since we cannot accept unlimited bets on one of the sides of the event, we introduce limits on the game (not to be confused with limits on the bet) — the maximum amount of money that will be accepted on the current line. When the limit is reached, the line changes, that is, we "move" the line to attract money to the other side of the event. The bookie can change the payout ratio or handicap, or both at the same time. The choice depends on the potential ability of this change to create a balanced flow of bets and its impact on the theoretical percentage of income. Most often, they prefer to move the handicap. The method is very simple and its effect on the percentage of income (its reduction) is acceptable.
- Line and express bets
Express should be considered as a set of ordinaries for each team for the amount of express. For example, a $500 express on Rams-Lions should be considered as two $500 ordinaries on Rams and Lions separately. However, the bookie should not move the line based only on the amount of money put on the express. If the amount of money put on ordinaries is significantly less than the amount put on express, then the office may get into a situation where the lines need to be moved too often. For example, if players bet a lot of express on Ram-Lions, then the office will move lines on both Rams and Lions according to this method. If this move attracts bets on the opponents of these teams, the office will lose, if both teams lose. For this reason, avoid moving lines based only on the amounts of the placed express.
We would also highlight the importance of one skill that can help in betting - paying a lot of attention to statistics. Americans are obsessed with statistics in sports, and often the numbers describe the state of things in a particular team or a particular match. After carefully studying the statistical calculations of opponents in the NFL, you can draw the right conclusions and materialize them in successful bets. For example, if one of the teams is playing well on horseback (that is, through a pass from the quarterback to the receiver), and the other has a problem protecting it from the past, it is logical to bet on the success of the first, or on the individual total of this team, which will fight with a convenient opponent.
Hereby, we looked at the main features of the line in the NFL. Knowing these subtleties will make it easier for you to bet and win in the NFL.